PRIMARY SECURITY CHALLENGES FACED BY AFGHANISTAN'S NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES POST-US WITHDRAWAL

Abstract

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the subsequent Taliban takeover have precipitated significant security challenges for neighboring countries, reshaping regional stability dynamics. This research paper examines the primary security threats confronting Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors—Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China— drawing on recent data from United Nations reports, regional policy analyses, and scholarly studies (2021–2023). Key findings identify transnational terrorism, particularly from ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as a critical concern, with spillover violence threatening Central Asian states and Pakistan. Refugee influxes, exacerbated by Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis, strain Iran and Pakistan, while narcotics trafficking through Tajikistan and Iran fuels organized crime and corruption. Cross-border instability, driven by the Taliban’s limited territorial control and porous borders, enables militant safe havens and arms smuggling. Geopolitical tensions further compound these issues, with China wary of Uyghur separatist groups exploiting Afghan territory and regional powers like Russia and India-Pakistan navigating competing interests. The study underscores the interconnected nature of these challenges, highlighting how Afghanistan’s economic collapse and governance vacuums amplify risks. It argues that unilateral responses risk exacerbating regional fractures, advocating instead for multilateral cooperation through frameworks like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Without coordinated action to address root causes—including economic deprivation and Taliban legitimacy—the region faces heightened instability, necessitating urgent international engagement to mitigate cascading security repercussions.