SEA AS A SYSTEM: A MOSAIC-BASED ANALYSIS OF HYBRID MARITIME THREATS

Abstract

As the concept of hybrid warfare introduces a next-generation variant of maritime security, the maritime domain operations are becoming increasingly entangled in complex security dynamics. Hybrid warfare in the maritime domain encompasses a blend of traditional naval operations and unconventional tools such as maritime terrorism, cyber-attack, disinformation, and economic coercion targeting vital sea-based settings, including shipping lanes, undersea critical infrastructure, and deep-sea installations. Moreover, the hybrid threat spectrum covers a subtle yet potent tool for leveraging ambiguous legal maritime regimes, especially in the case of interpreting an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Reconceptualizing the blue sphere as an interconnected system vulnerable to evolving hybrid tactics, this research draws upon the MOSAIC model, which offers a systematic study of such threats to examine how states preempt, dislocate, or disrupt their adversaries. Using qualitative methods along with region-based case study analysis, this research paper explores the existing gaps in legal maritime infrastructure and regional maritime security framework and highlights strategic gaps in deterrence and attribution. As the existing threat environment of the world is rapidly transforming, this study argues that current traditional and monolithic platform-centric models of maritime defense are insufficient in addressing such issues. In this regard, this paper calls for a multi-domain-based response emphasizing interoperability, distributed deterrence, and network-centric capabilities. Finally, this study concludes by proposing strategies emphasizing multi-domain awareness and interstate coordination to build a resilient response mechanism to the next-generation maritime hybrid threats.