IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT: EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

Agriculture is affected by momentous amounts of gas emissions which also disturb climate. A huge surge in the absorption of greenhouse gases in particular carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide in the environment has upshots on the volume, quality, and steadiness of agricultural output. Agriculture and climate change are delineated by a multifaceted cause-effect association. This study is conducted to understand the nexus amid climate change and agricultural output in South Asia. Agriculture value added as a percentage of gross domestic product is taken as a dependent variable which is the proxy of agricultural output, while some other independent variables include climatic and non-climatic as well. In non-climatic indicators, urbanization and trade are taken as independent variables to check the socio-economic impact on agricultural output. In climatic indicators, greenhouse gas (CO₂ and N₂O) emissions are taken as independent variables for checking the emissions of harmful gases that are causing a change in the climate. In this study, we have applied pooled ordinary least square (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects models along with Pedroni Co-integration and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) techniques. Results corroborate that carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions negatively affect output, while agricultural land and urbanization directly and significantly affect agricultural output. It is recommended that reinforcing scientific research in pertinent areas of climate change and intensifying agricultural output to tweak climate change is of vigorous significance and suitable policies are immensely needed in this regard.